Last night I played in a cash game at a friendly, nearby establishment. The regulars were all there as well as a couple other donators. I fully expected to get shipped some monies and by the end of the night, I was not disappointed.

The game we play is 1/3 dealers choice, which means we play a lot of wild card games. It’s +EV for myself and the better players to partake in these games, mainly because we take advantage of our opponents inability to read their hands correctly. And yes. They are that bad that they can’t read their cards correctly.

Bought in for $300, which is pretty standard for the game. I quickly got quartered when playing OHL w/ one-eyed jacks and suicide kings as wild cards. I had quad tens with the nut lo but the op, unfortunately, held quad aces with the nut lo. Nice hand sir, gg take my money. Orbit or two later I doubled up when I we were playing OHL w/ 7s wild and I had two 7s in my hand. Luckily a lo came and I milked my three opponents to the max. I took the hi and split the lo with 2 others. I quickly got quartered again when my straight flush/nut lo got destroyed by quad 5s/nut low. I misplayed my hand and lost the max when I shoved over his river bet and he had nut/nut. Oh well. Nh Jeff, thanks for stealing the hot seat!

I slowly chipped up back to even playing games like crazy pineapple with any turn being wild. Finally, I ended up in a big multiway pot with a wild card. I flopped top set and kept betting all the way. By the river I had made the nut flush and the resident pay off queen called my $150 river bet with the fourth nuts. FYI calling w/ the fourth nuts in any wild card game is not a profitable play!

Not much else happened. I did enjoy watching my friend Antonio lose again. I believe that makes 3 negative cash game sessions in a row for him. Variance is finally kicking him in the balls for playing all those shitty cards. There is some justice in this world!

Ended up one buyin so + $300 or a little under $100/ hour.

Edit: I find it really amazing that during wild card games, people will voluntarily put all their money in the pot without any wild cards. Seem strange to you?

Weekly Thursday

Played in my weekly Thursday cash game at my buddy's house. The usual suspects were there, prepared to donate to my cause. As luck would have it, they donated $600 exactly. A nice take.
A couple of hands come to mind, particularly a bluff I pulled on one of the tight regulars:

The regular opens UTG for a weakish $10 bet and four people call in front of me. I elect to call, with a speculative 95dd, spew I know, but whatever; If I hit a flush I'm stacking someone. Two more people call behind me and we have ourselves a nice pot. The flop comes 2s 3d 4d. Nice flop for me as I flop a combo draw. Everyone checks to me and I bet $45 into $70 or something. Everyone folds except the reg who calls. Turn comes the 9 of clubs and op checks it again. This time I fire out $100. The reg quickly calls. The river is the Q of hearts. The reg checks to me again. Since he's obviously holding one pair I fire off $230 and he quickly folds. I show him the bluff because I'm awesome and take down a nice pot. One of the players says, "Ben, you know I would have beaten you, I had two pairs!" No shit sherlock, I had nine high.

The only other hand of note came after I had been tangling with my mate Antonio. Antonio is a spewy regular who plays large pots out of position with speculative holdings. Thing is, he scares the shit out of me because he can have ATC. Anyway the action went like this:

Same reg as in the previous hand opens for $15. I look down at two red aces and pop it to $53. Antonio calls in the SB and the original raiser comes along. Flop comes Qc 9d 3s. Great flop. Checked to me and I bet $115. Anthony just calls which scares me. 10J is not out of his range but I'm scared he may have flopped a set. Preflop raiser folds and I'm happy to see another 9 fall on the turn. This time Antonio leads out for $200, which is a standard move for him. I promptly ship it in for $350 more, he ho hums for a few minutes and then folds 77 face up. WTF? He almost convinced himself to call. I'm just curious how he even got to the turn. Some things Ill never understand! Till next time.

$ Game + Books

Played about 3.5 hours in a lil cash game with a few of the regulars and was up 1.1k. Boy did I hit a serious heater! Of course the op paid me off pretty much every hand because I'm always bluffing. Silly wild card games are fun! Watched San Diego crush Favre and the Jets in MNF too. All in all, a good night.

In non-poker related news, I have recently caught the reading bug. Strange for me because I rarely read for pleasure. (Edit: I never read for pleasure). In two weeks I have read Machiavelli's The Prince, Dumas' The Count of Monte Cristo, Larry Philips' Zen and the Art of Poker and just today I finished Hunter S. Thompson's Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, you swine! I'm not much for writing book reports so don't expect any profound analysis...at all. At least for now. But I think in the near future I will delve into the classics such as 1984, Fountainhead etc.. Who knows. Till next time.

One Time!

Well, the poker gods have screwed me again...
PokerStars Game #20582547691: Tournament #109216584, $200+$15 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (200/400) - 2008/09/21 14:04:12 ETTable '109216584 182' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: URMYLeNoR (13193 in chips)
Seat 2: Sumby (12426 in chips)
Seat 3: AGame18 (23576 in chips)
Seat 4: herbstl (12799 in chips)
Seat 5: SKUNKWENCH (14691 in chips)
Seat 6: vhjelvik (12000 in chips)
Seat 7: postbear (12303 in chips)
Seat 8: tomgus456 (10925 in chips)
Seat 9: havanabrowns (18000 in chips)
AGame18: posts small blind 200herbstl: posts big blind 400*
** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to SKUNKWENCH [Jd Js]
SKUNKWENCH: raises 800 to 1200
vhjelvik: folds postbear: folds tomgus456: folds havanabrowns: folds URMYLeNoR: folds Sumby: calls 1200
AGame18: folds
herbstl: raises 3600 to 4800
SKUNKWENCH: calls 3600
Sumby: folds *** FLOP *** [5d 8h 7c]
herbstl: bets 7999 and is all-in
SKUNKWENCH: calls 7999
*** TURN *** [5d 8h 7c] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [5d 8h 7c Kd] [4s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***herbstl: shows [Ad Ks] (a pair of Kings)SKUNKWENCH: shows [Jd Js] (a pair of Jacks)herbstl collected 26998 from pot

I make the right read, the right call at the right time and get rightly fucked on the turn. Standard.

$200+R Tourney & 1/2 action

Played in a $200+Rebuys tourney last night. As expected, the play was horrendous. My superior skills were no match for the type of player who will call my 4x preflop raise and then check call a full pot bet on the flop and turn with an inside straight draw and then hit. I can't play against that type of player...they're just too good! We started with a stack of 5,000 chips and I never got above 8,700. Three times I was good until the river, but alas, this is NLHE, not four card poker, so my hopes and dreams were flushed down the drain on the river. I promptly busted when my KQ ran into a huge pair of pocket 9s preflop. The turn gave me an open ender and all I needed to see on the river was a 'lil paint, but no, it bricked out and I was out in the fifth level of blinds. Standard.

Knowing I was better than all those players, I decide to play some on the virtual felt and promptly stacked 3 players in less than 500 hands. Booked a nice $415 win after I ran into a cooler type situation in a 3-bet spot flopping top pair top kicker against an overpair (AK vs. AA). Op played the hand well, so gg nh sir.

Think I'm going to 8-table 50c/$1 tonight. Hopefully I can play around 2k hands. Till later.

Update

Hmmm. Played in my regular Thursday night live game and came up +1.5k, which was nice. A great reversal from the previous few outings. Nothing really of note, just stack-a-donk type hands against bad players. Oh yeah, I did make a nice bluff against one player...
I'm on the button with AJs and UTG makes a 4x raise, gets about four callers and I call on the button. Flop comes down 3 6 3, missing me completely. UTG raiser continues for less than 1/2 pot. He's ABC type player, capable of making moves, but I think to myself, "nah, this is my pot." So I call and the turn peels a blank 8 or something. He fires $35 into a $150 pot and since I'm not having any of that weak bullshit I raise it up to $135. He folds after some deliberation claiming he folded an overpair. Owned. Repping that 3 was too easy. Shout out to Ross who pulled the same move earlier in the evening.

idk

Villain is good. Hasn't gotten out of line and he hasn't had to show down yet.

Full Tilt Poker Game #7973913297: Table Hurt (deep 6) - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:51:25 Seat 1: GayPenguin ($529.40)
Seat 2: chL41 ($1,419.90)
Seat 3: Regulator06 ($1,520.55)
Seat 4: clcktower ($740.25)
Seat 5: aes2sedai ($248.45)
Seat 6: AxisOfWeasel ($522)
GayPenguin posts the small blind of $3
chL41 posts the big blind of $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to GayPenguin [Ad As] - nice
Regulator06 folds,clcktower folds,aes2sedai folds,AxisOfWeasel folds
GayPenguin raises to $18 - I make a standard raise from the SB
chL41 calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Js 4h 6h] - J hi flop, flush and straight possibilities
GayPenguin bets $28 - Good flop.I bet 3/4 of the pot
chL41 raises to $100 - could have AJhh, 57hh, a set, pair and a flush draw type hand.
GayPenguin calls $72 - here i call and peel a turn card.
*** TURN *** [Js 4h 6h] [3c] - 57hh got there, set is still ahead
GayPenguin checks
chL41 bets $150
GayPenguin folds

I really don't know how to play this hand. His flop raise is pretty strong. I think in future i should c/r the flop instead of leading. When he raises me on the flop I think folding is the worst thing i can do. My stack size definitely comes into play though because I can only min raise his flop bet which would be really weak. I don't know how to play this hand. Should I just shove flop?

Are you kidding me?

PokerStars Game #20303656426: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2008/09/10 17:28:27 ETTable 'Enif V' 6-max
Seat #5 is the buttonSeat 1: titko23 ($710.60 in chips)
Seat 2: saywhat_agan ($117 in chips)
Seat 3: thelumeister ($595.55 in chips)
Seat 4: Avaran ($208 in chips)
Seat 5: jacksintheho ($222.80 in chips)
Seat 6: SKUNKWENCH ($87.70 in chips)
SKUNKWENCH: posts small blind
$1titko23: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***Dealt to SKUNKWENCH [Ac As]
SKUNKWENCH: calls
$1titko23: raises $6 to $8
SKUNKWENCH: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [9c 3h Js]
SKUNKWENCH: checks
titko23: bets $14
SKUNKWENCH: raises $30 to $44
titko23: raises $42 to $86
SKUNKWENCH: calls $35.70 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($6.30) returned to titko23
*** TURN *** [9c 3h Js] [6h]
*** RIVER *** [9c 3h Js 6h] [Ts]
*** SHOW DOWN ***SKUNKWENCH: shows [Ac As] (a pair of Aces)
titko23: shows [Jh Th] (two pair, Jacks and Tens)
titko23 collected $172.40 from pot

Alright. I never make this play but I was mixing it up. I slow play my aces, as I have lost my last 7 all ins with them. Villain takes the bait and raises 4x. I smooth call. Flop comes down looking very harmless. I check, he bets, I raise, he shoves all in. I call. And then he gets there. This is absolutely ridiculous. I have now lost my last 8 hands with pocket aces. Im just going to fold preflop from now on.

Standard

And it continues...

Full Tilt Poker Game #7967383947: Table Radwick (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - Dealt to GayPenguin [Ah Ad]
GayPenguin raises to $3.50
riverhater12 calls $3.50
52RAVENS folds
crowstone raises to $18
bonucch13 folds
GayPenguin raises to $60
riverhater12 folds
crowstone raises to $144.50, and is all in
GayPenguin calls $41.45, and is all in
crowstone shows [Js Jd]
GayPenguin shows [Ah Ad]
Uncalled bet of $43.05 returned to crowstone
*** FLOP *** [Jc Ts 9s]
*** TURN *** [Jc Ts 9s] [Tc]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Ts 9s Tc] [9d]
crowstone shows a full house, Jacks full of Tens
GayPenguin shows two pair, Aces and Tens
crowstone wins the pot ($204.40) with a full house, Jacks full of Tens

Use my lag image to get some muppet to go all in with jacks to my aces and he hits his set. Pretty standard for me right now.

Full Tilt Poker Game #7967495273: Table Anza (deep 6) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - Seat 1: Spearra ($48.70)
Seat 2: nationalkato ($72.35)
Seat 3: readyrnot7 ($320.85)
Seat 4: RunningALK ($100)
Seat 5: vr4rider ($175.90)
Seat 6: GayPenguin ($144.40)
Spearra posts the small blind of $0.50
nationalkato posts the big blind of $1
5 seconds left to act
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GayPenguin [Ad Ac]
readyrnot7 raises to $3 - A good regular opens with a standard raise (PPs, A10+)
vr4rider folds
GayPenguin raises to $10.50 - I 3-bet preflop pretty standard with AA
Spearra folds
nationalkato folds
readyrnot7 calls $7.50
*** FLOP *** [9h Ts 9c] - Not a terrible flop for me
readyrnot7 checks
GayPenguin bets $16 - I continue with 2/3 pot size bet
readyrnot7 calls $16 - Polarized to 99+, A10+
*** TURN *** [9h Ts 9c] [7d] - A great turn card for me. He never holds the straight here.
readyrnot7 checks - I'm pretty sure he has JJ, QQ, KK here
GayPenguin has 15 seconds left to act
GayPenguin bets $44 - I continue to value bet
readyrnot7 calls $44 - He just calls. Really looks like JJ - KK
*** RIVER *** [9h Ts 9c 7d] [2c] - Perfect river card for me
readyrnot7 checks - He checks with a 3/4 pot bet left on the river. I'm 99% positive I have the best hand
GayPenguin bets $73.90, and is all in - I shove hoping to get called
readyrnot7 calls $73.90 - He obliges
*** SHOW DOWN ***
GayPenguin shows [Ad Ac] two pair, Aces and Nines
readyrnot7 shows [Tc Th] a full house, Tens full of Nines
readyrnot7 wins the pot ($287.30) with a full house, Tens full of Nines

Wow. So I got really pwned in this hand. Nh sir. Villain makes a standard preflop call and flops the second nuts. He check calls two streets and by the river he knows that I have KK/AA. My hand is pretty face up. He makes a really nice river check as well, inducing my shove. If he lead shoves I can possibly get away from my hand although there is a less than 10% chance I will ever fold in a position like that. As played, I'm always getting stacked. Maybe I should have checked the flop for pot control? idk

I haven't won an all in with aces in the last 5 hands I've played. That's pretty gross.

Interesting

Villain has 3-bet my last five hands that I've raised, all of which I've let him take down uncontested. So I fire a 4-bet at him in this hand and he comes over the top of me. Shit. I have to call and he shows me JJ to my K 10. Nice hand sir. I was outplayed. I flop trips (when does that happen?) but then another resuck and he hits running jacks to make quads. The best hand won.

Full Tilt Poker Game #7949952205: Table Choctaw (6 max) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:21:08 ET - 2008/09/05
Seat 1: GayPenguin ($173.15)
Seat 2: fffingers1 ($0), is sitting out
Seat 3: GiggysMaid ($319.35)
Seat 4: SadEyes8 ($354.25)
Seat 5: DaHammer911 ($77)
Seat 6: Anytime 2323 ($394.15)
GiggysMaid posts the small blind of $1
SadEyes8 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GayPenguin [Tc Ks]
fffingers1 stands up
DaHammer911 calls $2
Anytime 2323 folds
GayPenguin raises to $9
GiggysMaid has 15 seconds left to act
GiggysMaid raises to $33
plsShipIt stands up
SadEyes8 folds
DaHammer911 folds
GayPenguin raises to $79
010101010101 stands up
GiggysMaid raises to $319.35, and is all in
T3ddyP1ck3r adds $200
GayPenguin calls $94.15, and is all in
GiggysMaid shows [Jc Jd]
GayPenguin shows [Tc Ks]
Uncalled bet of $146.20 returned to GiggysMaid
*** FLOP *** [Ts 4d Th]
*** TURN *** [Ts 4d Th] [Js]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 4d Th Js] [Jh]
GiggysMaid shows four of a kind, Jacks
GayPenguin shows a full house, Tens full of Jacks
GiggysMaid wins the pot ($347.30) with four of a kind, Jacks
GayPenguin is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $350.30 Rake $3
Board: [Ts 4d Th Js Jh]
Seat 1: GayPenguin showed [Tc Ks] and lost with a full house, Tens full of Jacks
Seat 2: fffingers1 (button) is sitting out
Seat 3: GiggysMaid (small blind) showed [Jc Jd] and won ($347.30) with four of a kind, Jacks
Seat 4: SadEyes8 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: DaHammer911 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Anytime 2323 didn't bet (folded)

Cooler x2

And it doesn't stop.

Full Tilt Poker Game #7948855245: Table Arbordale (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:53:42 ET - 2008/09/05
Seat 1: Zone Control ($105)
Seat 2: JustCantLose ($131.90)
Seat 3: whebber ($95.20)
Seat 4: Mourganra ($112.30)
Seat 5: GayPenguin ($98)
Seat 6: tonyritabr ($38)
whebber posts the small blind of $0.50
Mourganra posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GayPenguin [Ts Kc]
GayPenguin raises to $3.50
tonyritabr has 15 seconds left to act
tonyritabr folds
Zone Control folds
JustCantLose calls $3.50
whebber calls $3
Mourganra folds
*** FLOP *** [Ks 4h 8c]
whebber checks
GayPenguin bets $8
JustCantLose calls $8
whebber calls $8
*** TURN *** [Ks 4h 8c] [Tc]
whebber checks
GayPenguin bets $27
JustCantLose raises to $54
whebber adds $16.30
whebber folds
GayPenguin raises to $86.50, and is all in
JustCantLose calls $32.50
GayPenguin shows [Ts Kc]
JustCantLose shows [Kh Kd]
*** RIVER *** [Ks 4h 8c Tc] [Th]
GayPenguin shows a full house, Tens full of Kings
JustCantLose shows a full house, Kings full of Tens
JustCantLose wins the pot ($205.50) with a full house, Kings full of Tens
GayPenguin is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $208.50 Rake $3
Board: [Ks 4h 8c Tc Th]
Seat 1: Zone Control didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: JustCantLose (button) showed [Kh Kd] and won ($205.50) with a full house, Kings full of Tens
Seat 3: whebber (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 4: Mourganra (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: GayPenguin showed [Ts Kc] and lost with a full house, Tens full of Kings
Seat 6: tonyritabr didn't bet (folded)

I make a standard raise, get called in two spots and flop top pair. I continue, get called and hit top two only to get raised. I put him on worse two pair or maybe 88. Either way I shove and he flips KK for a slowplayed set. Nice hand sir. Just to rub it in I hit my full house.


Full Tilt Poker Game #7949379112: Table Hydra (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:35:38 ET - 2008/09/05
Seat 1: cool32 ($108.25), is sitting out
Seat 3: angcnfly2 ($157.50), is sitting out
Seat 4: GayPenguin ($94)
Seat 5: eastern motors ($100), is sitting out
Seat 6: st4r ($165.15)
st4r posts the small blind of $0.50
GayPenguin posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GayPenguin [Kd Ks]
st4r raises to $3
GayPenguin raises to $9
Zooki adds $100
st4r raises to $24
eastern motors has returned
GayPenguin raises to $94, and is all in
cool32 stands up
st4r calls $70
GayPenguin shows [Kd Ks]
st4r shows [Ac Ah]
*** FLOP *** [3c Kh 5h]
eastern motors has been disconnected
*** TURN *** [3c Kh 5h] [5d]
eastern motors has reconnected
*** RIVER *** [3c Kh 5h 5d] [Ad]
GayPenguin shows a full house, Kings full of Fives
st4r shows a full house, Aces full of Fives
st4r wins the pot ($187.50) with a full house, Aces full of Fives
GayPenguin is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $188 Rake $0.50
Board: [3c Kh 5h 5d Ad]
Seat 1: cool32 is sitting out
Seat 3: angcnfly2 is sitting out
Seat 4: GayPenguin (big blind) showed [Kd Ks] and lost with a full house, Kings full of Fives
Seat 5: eastern motors is sitting out
Seat 6: st4r (small blind) showed [Ac Ah] and won ($187.50) with a full house, Aces full of Fives

Here I get it all in preflop with KK vs AA. I hit the miracle top set on the flop, think I'm good and then get resucked by the guy's rockets. Standard.

Equity, Variance and Tilt

In my last three cash games I have had the worst downswing that I can remember. I have dropped close to 10 buyins in >1000 hands at the $1/$3 level (playing with 100BB stacks), which constitutes almost 15% of my bankroll. This is absolutely absurd for my playing style within such a minute sample of hands; I have never experienced anything remotely close to this in my four years playing poker.

While most bad poker players or people who no little to nothing about poker would immediately say, “see, I told you poker is all about luck” and “there is little skill involved,” I know 100% this NOT to be the case. Poker is a game based on mathematics and it has only been in the past year and half when I have started to take an interest in the numbers aspect of the game. Using more math in my game has been the best decision I have ever made, pokerwise. For example, until recently I didn’t know that one’s river play is always a math based decision. Now, I have adjusted my play accordingly and have been rewarded. As a poker player, one should not be concerned with the outcome of any single hand as long as the correct decision was made when all the money went into the pot. If my decision is mathematically correct, I am making money in the long run, which is the ultimate goal. However, it becomes increasingly frustrating when I get my money in good, only to have the pot stripped away from me due to variance.

During my downswing I am running far below equity. What I mean by equity is that if I am playing a $1/$2 NL cash game and both myself and op have 100 BB (Big Blind) stacks ($200 each at the beginning of the hand), with me holding AA vs. his JJ, I should expect to win this pot 80% of the time. Here, if we are all in preflop for a $400 pot, my equity is 80%, so on average I should win $320 from the pot. Over my sample size I am running 1.5k below equity. I really hope it ends soon.

Let’s take a look at a few examples:

(All hands are full ring NL with $1/$3 blinds)

Hand 1:

7 limpers. I complete in SB with 2h5c. BB checks.
Flop: Ah 3h 4s
I check. MP bets $20. MP+1 calls $20. I raise to $65 total.
MP raises all in for $300 total. I call all-in for $235.

Here I call $2 dollars in the SB hoping to hit two pair or a straight and I flop the nut straight on a coordinated board. MP leads, I raise, and MP 3-bets me all in. Of course I am never folding my hand at this point as I have the best possible hand, but I must assign villain a range of hands. Likely holdings include A4, A3, 33, 44 as op is a weak player, never going to 3-bet without a made hand (i.e. he just calls with a flush draw. A better op might do this with a pair and f/draw). Against his perceived range I am around 66% to win this hand.

In reality, I call and op turns over 33 for bottom set and makes a FH by the river when the board pairs an Ace. With the total pot being (7*$3) + $20 + (2*$300) = $641. My equity for the hand is 66% therefore, I should expect on average to win $641*0.66 = $423 from the pot. However, he hits his outs and I am down one buy in.

Hand 2:

5 limpers. I raise on the button with AhAd to $25. I get three callers.
Flop: Kh Qc 2s
Everyone checks to me and I bet $70. MP calls $70. 2 folds.
Turn: 3h
Op checks. I bet $150. Op min-raises to $300 total. I go all in for $28 more.

Total pot = $4(blinds)+ $6(limpers) + (4*25) = $110 preflop
$110 + ($70*2) + (328*2) = $906 total pot

Here, op is semi-competent but the loosest player at the table, who constantly calls preflop raises with marginal starting hands out of position. At this point, a range must be assigned to villain. He limp-called $25 preflop so his range can include any two cards. On the flop, I bet 2/3rds of the pot and he calls. Here I can safely assume villain does not have KK or QQ. His most likely holdings are Kx, Qx and sometimes KQ, J 10, or 22. The turn is a blank, the 3h. Villain checks again. At this point we can eliminate KQ, and 22 from his range because op always leads the turn in the hands when he perceives himself to be ahead. In other words, op would bet the turn with these holdings for what he believes to be a “value bet” to chase me off any draws that I have. Since he checked to me, I can assume his most likely holdings are Kx and rarely Kxhh. I bet, $150, or a little less than 2/3rds of the pot in order to a) show I have committed myself to the pot and b) give op the opportunity to raise me. Op takes the bait, minimum raises me and I happily call all in with the rest of my stack. At this point I am 95% sure I am up against some sort of one pair hand. I am delighted when he turns over QdJs for middle pair, weak kicker with no flush draw. Unfortunately, the river brings a J making my opponent two pair. He drags the 300 BB pot. Although, I lost the pot, I am happy with my play because I am way ahead of his perceived range. In the long run, this is a profitable play.

Let’s take a look at my equity when we get it all in on the turn. When all the money goes in I am an 88% favorite to win the pot. However, using Poker Stove to adjust to his perceived hand range, with AA I have 84% equity, meaning on average, I should win $906*0.84 = $761 from the pot. However, this was not the case, and I lost a huge pot.

I attribute this downswing not to bad luck or bad beats, but Variance. Variance is a statistical measure of how ones results will be dispersed. It is not merely a bankroll swing. Any mathematician knows poker can be profitable; it is a skill game but with an element of chance due to how the cards are randomly distributed. Variance is the element of chance in the short run. And I can’t stand it. However, as I said earlier, as long as the decision you make is mathematically correct, you WILL make money in the long run.

Let me give you an example. Say I’m playing in a NL shorthanded (6 players) cash game. I’ve been playing LAG (loose aggressive) and my style has been frustrating my opponents. We start the hand with the same size stack (100BBs) and I raise UTG (under the gun) with AKhh and my opponent three bets me. I reraise all in and he calls me, showing AQo. This is good for me as I am going to win the pot 75% of the time. Simultaneously, it means he will win my stack one out of every four times we go all in with the same holdings. In other words, I should expect to lose my stack in a similar scenario. It is frustrating when it happens, but it should not upset me. Of course, I am human and it does sometimes affect my game.

Over the course of hundreds of thousands of hands the natural variance will equal out. As long as my bankroll can maintain these swings, I should show a profit, which I have.

Mike Caro, the Mad Genius of Poker wrote the following about Variance in one periodical:

1 Poker Hand – Chance predominates
100 Poker Hands – Skill begins to have an influence
1000 Poker Hands – Skill now the single biggest factor
10000 Poker Hands – The effect of chance now minimal
100,000 Poker Hands – The effect of chance now all but gone.

When I do lose a big pot when I am large favorite to win the hand, it will sometimes have a negative impact on my game. This is called Tilt. I become frustrated, open too many pots with marginal holdings, will two and three barrel bluff on the turn and river as well as play way too many bad holdings out of position, which is about the worst thing you can do in poker. Hopefully, after I finish reading Zen and the Art of Poker, tilt will not influence my decision making process. If I can cleanse myself of tilt, there is no way I am going to lose money.

Now that I have covered Equity, Variance and touched upon the subject of tilt (which I most likely will have to address later :) let’s talk about a few more hands I played last night and just about how my last three sessions have gone, in general. In my last three sessions, I have had pocket aces four times, and lost 3 out of 4. Usually, this hand is my biggest money maker, but over this hand sample it has probably cost me the most. Last night, when holding AA I lost to QJ and 78, although I lost the minimum to the latter. With suited connectors, I flopped 6 open ended straight draws and 5 four card flushes. I missed every draw, which is quite a feat in itself. I have hit three sets during this entire sample. Once I took an opponents stack, another time an opponent made a flush against me on the river and I check called his bet and then in another hand I flopped a set on a monotone board (all one suit) and had to check fold to pressure on the turn with four of the same suit on the board. Ultimately, I haven’t been hitting. Now, it’s one thing to outplay your opponent. I can do this. However, I cannot outplay four opponents. I cannot bluff four people out of a pot! I can do this against one other player, using my hand reading skills because it is + EV (expected value). I just haven’t made any big hands in multi way pots and had them hold up. Hands 1 and 2 show this trend as does the following hand:

Hand 3:

MP (middle position) raises to $20. MP+1 calls. I call from the cutoff with A2dd. ($64 in the pot)
Flop: Ac 2s 8s
MP bets $20. MP+1 folds. I raise to $60. MP calls.
Turn: Jd
MP checks. I bet $80. MP calls $80.
River: 10c
MP bets $100. I call $100.

MP is the same maniac from Hand 2. His range here is Ax or any pocket pair. He continues with a weak bet on the flop (probably thinking he is trappig me) and I raise him 3x with two pair. At this point I know I have the best hand. In retrospect I should have made the raise to $100 because my hand is easily beaten. However, op never folds top pair and I don’t want the pot to get too out of control. When the turn comes a J and op check/calls my bet I know I am ahead and put him on AK, AQ, A10 and sometime A9. My turn bet is far too small. I bet $80 into $180 which is just a terrible under bet. I seriously misplayed my hand here as I should really bet $150 and fold to a turn shove to get some value out of my hand. Op calls and the river is a 10. Op leads for $100 into a $340 pot and getting 4.4:1, I am forced to call as I only need to be good here one in four and a half times to be profitable in the long run. Op turns over A 10 for rivered two pair. Sick. Ultimately, my fault, for playing the hand so weak, but he was calling no matter the price because he is such a terrible loose player. Online, at $1/$2 or $2/$4 they would always fold on the turn in this situation. However, my opponent is terrible and doesn't know any better.

Another hand of note was when a nit (which is a really tight player) raised to $20 UTG. UTG+1, a similar type nit calls and I raise to $70 with QsQd. Both call my reraise. Here, UTGs range is AK, JJ, 1010, with UTG+1 more polarized to AK and 1010.
Flop: Ac 10c 6c.
Worst. Flop. Ever. That hit both their ranges very hard and I don’t even have a club! UTG goes all in for $200ish and UTG+1 calls quickly. Instantly, I know they both have AK. I muck in disgust and they both show AK (I can’t believe the ace came down) with UTG freerolling with the K of clubs. The club draw misses and they chop the pot and my $70. Standard for how I’ve been running. But, I lost the minimum and was way ahead until the flop.

Omaha HL has been an absolute joke for me. The way we play is basically bingo. There is little skill involved minus value betting. It’s mindless poker and I can’t stand it. You just have to make a hand. And I haven’t made more than 2 nut hands and gotten paid. Every time I have A2 it’s high cards. When I have four high cards it’s all low cards. Then the same player keeps winning the monies and I consider him to be terrible, mainly because he just spews chips everywhere. But he has been on fire as of late and no one seems to be able to take a pot off of him. I laugh though, knowing his luck will run out and that he has already gifted me thousands of dollars over the past two years.

I know it will all turn around. I play too well in No Limit not to make money. I really do need to improve my Hi/Lo game, but what am I supposed to do in that bingo game? I am confident that Variance will become my bitch once again. Till next time.

5th in $100+R Tourney

Meh. 55 runners. I grinded my way to the final table playing straight forward poker. With six left I was looking good, second in chips and hoping to take down the 4k first prize. Unfortunately, the only bad thing about this tournament is the ridiculous blind structure (foreshadowing). It's push/fold poker at the final table, which means my advantage is reduced because there is hardly any postflop skill involved. It's Bingo poker; you just have to get lucky. Anyways, 6 handed everyone folds to the button who ships it in for about 65k, the SB folds and I look down at AKo in the BB and happily snap call as his range can be any pair, any ace or any king. He shows me the bad news as he flips up KK. Shit. The board bricks out an I'm left with 65k. Stupid tournament poker. Two hands later the same player busts some muppet holding Q9dd in a raised pot with pocket aces, dodging the flush draw. Man it must be nice to get that lucky. I ship it in a few hands later with K9hh and the same villain beats me with his 10c6s. Meh. Really thought I was going to come at least 3rd. Oh well. Took home $700 profit. Till next time.